As you read this, the draft is now almost half over. Many would argue that
the most important part of it is behind us, although the contributions of late
round draft picks and UDFA’s often surprise many experts. However, since
I’m writing this a couple of days early, I have no idea who we picked
Saturday, let alone why.
So, as I sip my coffee and think about the emotional state of all the would
be GM’s out there and how they will opine on who the Seahawks picked yesterday
and why, I have to approach it in more general terms. Which is perhaps a good
thing. It fits my personality better, anyway. As Robert Heinlein used to say,
“Specialization is for insects.” I invite you to have a cuppa joe
and relax a bit.
It is easy, in all the wrangling and arguing that goes on before the draft,
to lose perspective. Pundits have little to gain but bragging rights if they
should happen to correctly predict draft picks. After all, the variables are
such that it is virtually impossible to call the sequence that players finally
get picked in.
Amateurs should take note. If “experts” are not fired for incorrect
calls on draft day, there is no shame for the common hacker to share that status.
There is often more emotion than rationality in many of the discussions that
fly around the net concerning draft pick predictions, anyway.
As fans, we all want our team to improve. I think we can agree on that. Plus,
of course, we want our team to improve more than the rest of the league. Still
no argument there, right?
Mike Holmgren, and his fellow front office staffers, seem to follow a “best
athlete” strategy, for the most part. In truth, recent attempts to draft
for need have not been overly successful, while taking whoever was the “best
player/athlete” has drawn gems like Steve Hutchinson, Marcus Trufant,
and Shaun Alexander. Many fans, however, continue to stump for the “fill
the holes” strategy.
So, even with no knowledge of our Saturday picks I think I can safely say that
there is no need for panic. After all, with some notable exceptions (Ryan Leaf
comes to mind) there is historically very little chance that a draft pick will
actually hurt a team. The worst that can happen, usually, is that a pick will
not pan out and be “wasted.” Avoiding that outcome, of course, is
the job of the scouting department and all the coaches and staff involved in
the process.
As fans, we can argue and complain all day and night, but the truth is we don’t
really have any input. The team, quite understandably, leaves that responsibility
to their own in-house experts. After all, they are the ones in danger of being
fired if they pick poorly.
In truth, Seattle was in excellent shape this year before the draft began.
The offense has the one thing that all coaches dream of, continuity. As of
Wednesday of this week, we are returning all 11 offensive starters and most
of the 2nd and 3rd string players from last season. That kind of player retention
can only help the team, as it continues to grow together. Nothing is more important
than repetitions when it comes to an offense. The more games they play together
in the system, the better they will get.
The only real negative on offense this season is the continuing Walter Jones
contract negotiation that will not die. His absence will hurt the offensive
line’s development in training camp, if he repeats the last two seasons’
habit of not signing until opening day. While that is a bad thing, it is hardly
devastating. Last season, we went 3-0 to start the season under that condition.
Jones and his agent should probably look at that (among other things) when they
calculate Walter’s value to the team. I know the team will.
The defense was more problematic last year. However, prior to this draft Seattle’s
defense has already gotten noticeably younger. With the loss of Hand, Eaton,
Randle, and Tongue, the team has dropped around forty years of NFL experience,
along with over 100 years of age. While the loss of experience might be a concern,
the loss of all those old legs just might be a net positive.
Adding Taylor adds some age, but he can still play. Wistrom is in his prime,
and has shown no tendency to slow down yet. In truth, one could say that as
of Wednesday, 10 of the 11 starting positions on defense are at least filled,
with MLB the only real question.
There are areas that show dangerous lack of depth, notably on the line and
in the secondary. Some of that depth might be covered by young players returning
from injury, like in the case of defensive backs Bierria and Richard.
If all you are looking for is depth, first day picks are not where you go,
anyway. Usually, a team will look to day two to provide depth. A good strategy
is to draft for talent (Best Player Available) on day one, and need (roster
depth) on day two.
Obviously, no one should complain if the team adds talent. However, the question
we as fans always seem to ask ourselves is did the team add talent at the right
positions?
On the one hand, it seems simple to say, “The team has a need here,”
and then pick a player to fill that need. The major problem with that approach
is that it tends to ignore the concept of the value of players in the overall
scheme of things. That is where a team will reach for a player, feeling pressure
to get the guy before someone else takes him.
One notoriously unpredictable facet of drafting for need is the idea of covering
for the future. While contracts have predictable endpoints, things like injury
cannot be predicted accurately.
It is impossible, given the constraints of the 53 man roster, to provide adequate
depth at all positions every season. Sometimes the injuries mount up and simply
overwhelm all the best pre-season planning, much like what happened to the Seahawks
in 2002. Nobody likes to use the injury excuse, but consider this. That was
year 2 of our rebuilding process (if you follow the blueprint of 1999 as evaluation,
2000 as tear down, and 2001 the actual start of rebuilding). The team is better
prepared than it was 2 years ago and more likely to have success under those
conditions.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the Seahawks are now a playoff
team. Not a “playoff caliber” team like they arguably finished the
2002 season as. They made the playoffs in 2003, and did so by winning their
last regular season game on the road against a division rival. There is some
character involved in that, not to mention a basic level of talent.
Frankly, the Seahawks played rather well in all of their final 3 road games
at St Louis, San Francisco, and at Green Bay in the Wild Card game. It is not
unreasonable for Seattle fans to expect another playoff appearance in 2004,
regardless of schedule or off season roster moves.
Since I am writing this earlier in the week, I have no idea who Seattle drafted
yesterday. That doesn’t really matter. The truth is that anybody Seattle
drafts this weekend will have a difficult time winning a starting job anyway.
Rookies don’t often walk onto playoff teams and win starting jobs.
It takes the sting out of drafting late to know that the players selected don’t
need to step in and provide immediate help anyway. The best possible scenario
is to pick at #32.
There is a high probability that most of our 2nd day picks will not even make
the final cut. That is actually a good thing.
In many ways, the process shifted last season. The Seahawks are no longer in
the rebuilding mode. As a playoff team, they are in maintenance mode. That is
not to say that they don’t need improvement. They do. But first and foremost,
they must maintain the team at the level it showed in 2003 and improve from
there. They started that process by retaining key free agents earlier this off
season.
The best way to maintain and improve the team is to draft the best available
athlete, which always improves the overall talent level of the team.
So, it is Sunday, the morning of the second day of the draft. Relax. Sit back
and enjoy your coffee.
Whatever happened yesterday, rest assured that Holmgren and company really
do know what they are doing. Whomever we picked in the first three rounds will
most probably not hurt the team, and might just help. The truth is, we don’t
need that much help anyway.
The only real question marks for day 2 are: Will we pick a punter to challenge
Rouen and will Holmgren pick his next quarterback project?