Tubbs underwent a microfracture
procedure and months of rehab on his left knee, a process which began in late
2006, which made this newest setback a bitter pill to swallow. For the Seahawks,
the concern must be twofold – to surround their fallen teammate with help
and prayers, and to move forward with a season that begins on Sunday, September
9.
The $64 million questions
are: Why will Tubbs’ loss be so keenly felt, and how can the Seahawks overcome
it?
The Closer
From a purely statistical
standpoint, there are few NFL defensive tackles – especially nose tackles
in either 3-4 or 4-3 defenses - who show more difference
made than Tubbs. The nose tackles typically man the point, while the complementary
3-technique tackles blow through and make plays. In a position where tackles
and sacks never tell the whole story, a series of numbers have been circulating
for months, ever since Tubbs was lost for the remainder of the 2006 season
with his November injured reserve designation: In the 11 regular season games
Tubbs missed, Seattle’s defense allowed
147 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The five games in which
he played showed drastically different numbers - 82 yards per game and 3.9
yards per carry.
Two factors tend to reduce
the impact to some who have analyzed these numbers – small sample size (how
can you really rate the effectiveness of a variable based on five games versus
11?), and the different circumstances under which rushing attempts happen
(were these rushing yards coming about due to opposing teams hogging the clock
and adding yards based on garbage time – after all, the Seahawks went 5-6
without Tubbs in the lineup?)
These questions can be answered
to a point by DVOA, Football Outsiders’ proprietary statistic, which breaks
down every play of the NFL season based on specific situations against the
league average including opponent strength, down and distance, and many other
things. Basically, it assigns importance to play-by-play data at a forensic
level.
For the 2006 Seattle
defense, the per-game run defense DVOA tells its own story, reduces the presence
of garbage-time situations, and assigns perspective importance on conditions
that help teams win or lose. Keep in mind that Defensive DVOA is always better
when it is a negative number.
Based on a per-game average
(and adjusted for Seattle’s season-long defensive effectiveness), the Seahawks
put together an aggregate defensive run DVOA of -14.04% with Tubbs (a total
that would have ranked seventh in the league, prorated over a whole season),
and +4.9% without (which would have ranked 24th). Opposing rushing
attacks averaged a -22.7% DVOA with Tubbs (which would have ranked 31st
over a full season), and -0.5% without (good enough for 13th).
The Seahawks with and without
Tubbs faced two of their division opponents one time each. In Week 2, Arizona
gained 65 yards rushing on 18 attempts against Tubbs, and 113 yards on 33
carries in a Week 14 contest without Tubbs in the lineup. The Rams rushed
for 59 yards on 22 carries against Tubbs in Week 6, and 108 yards on 20 carries
in We ek 10 without.
There will be a more specific
analysis of these numbers on Football Outsiders in the near future. Aggregate
DVOA is a very inexact method because DVOA itself can swing wildly from week
to week, but the averages are enough.
Actually, if you’re a Seahawks
fan, they’re quite a bit more than enough.
The Replacement Killers
Now that we know that the
Seahawks are severely impacted without Tubbs in the lineup, we have to ask
how the issue can be corrected. Last season, Seattle had a Tubbs-less defensive line rotation of too-small nose
tackles and misplaced 3-technique linemen. They either got overwhelmed against
the offensive line push as their size proved inadequate for the task at hand,
or their penetrative abilities didn’t do the job when what was needed was
a stout man to stand the point and soak up blockers.
The domino effect was harsh
and immediate. With no wall at the line, Seattle’s linebackers, directed to shoot gaps and disrupt, found themselves
hung up in traffic all too often. The carpool lanes for opposing running backs
were the cutback routes – any back worth his salt who had time to make one
move was running through ether. Seattle’s overall defensive run DVOA plummeted from third in 2005 to
23rd in 2006, their defensive Adjusted Line Yards from first to
10th.
One pre-emptive measure
against the sort of falloff that plagued this Tubbs-less team was the selection
of Cal defensive tackle Brandon
Mebane in the third round of the 2007 Draft. Mebane weighed 309 at the Combine,
had a stellar Senior Bowl week, and appeared to be just the kind of insurance
policy the Seahawks needed. His stellar performances through training camp
and the preseason have validated Seattle’s hope. Mebane plays with great leverage and pursuit - he’s
probably a better pursuer than Tubbs – but it’s that very disruption that
could get in his way as a “Tubbstitute” if he moves
through or around double teams instead of occupying them.
One analyst who has been
in Mebane’s corner for a long time is NFLDraftScout.com Senior Draft Analyst
Rob Rang. When asked about Mebane’s ability to take over this most important
role from an understudy position. Rang was fairly definite about the idea.
“Mebane's play thus far
has been a pleasant surprise,” Rang said. “His ability to clog running lanes
while at Cal was the primary reason for his being selected
(by Seattle). Mebane has very good
strength at the point of attack and plays with great leverage, making him
tough to move off the line. If used in a rotation, he should be able to fill
a similar role to the one Tubbs has filled in the past.
“The surprising aspect about
Mebane's play has been his ability to collapse the pocket. In this capacity
Mebane has actually been an improvement over Tubbs. While at Cal Mebane was
coached to occupy blockers, allowing the defenders around him to make plays
behind the line of scrimmage. He has great quickness off the snap, but wasn't
coached to use his hands to disengage and attack. Over the past few months,
the Seahawks’ coaching staff has done a great job in realizing Mebane's untapped
potential. He's already demonstrating the ability to be a more consistent
disruptor than he was at Cal.”
Rang also noted the importance
of others on the defense stepping up and making things happen. “The addition
of safeties Brian Russell and Deon Grant is also significant,” he said. “Russell's
cerebral, consistent play should provide an influence to the Seattle
secondary similar to the one Marquand Manuel had two years ago. Similarly,
Deon Grant is a very reliable open field tackler and flashes the big
hitting ability that characterized Ken Hamlin's early days.”
“Clearly the Seahawks
are a lesser team in losing Marcus Tubbs for the season,” Rang said.
“Because his healthy return was far from guaranteed, however,
the team was forced to plan for his absence. The addition of Mebane, Russell
and Grant eases the team's concerns.”
In addition, Seattle’s
linebackers will most likely serve different functions this year. Leroy Hill,
who was often directed to cover the pass in 2006 against his most obvious
abilities, will return to a more forward, blitzing, run-stopping role. For
Lofa Tatupu, the gifted third-year man in the middle, the necessity to display
his in-game acumen at all times will be more important than ever.
The Seahawks will have to
do what any potential championship team does – find a way to win under adverse
circumstances. The last team to sail through the entire NFL season untouched
by fickle fate was a virtual one, created in Madden Franchise Mode, and most
likely on the “Rookie” setting. Remember that the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the
only undefeated team in NFL history, didn’t have their starting quarterback
for half the season.
Ah, those damned injuries…
Future Shock
For Marcus Tubbs, 26-year-old
professional defensive tackle, it’s all about the sum total of a professional
life. With his inability to play this year, Tubbs will have played in only
29 of a possible 64 regular-season games when 2007 ends. His rookie contract,
signed in August of 2004, expires after next season. The final question is
– will he even be around the team to enjoy it? Between a microfracture procedure
and a blown ACL, how many defensive tackles can do more than play with their
kids on two repaired knees?
Will Carroll, sports injury
expert for Baseball Prospectus, Football Outsiders, and SI.com, says that
it’s really dependent on how much “faith in Richard
Steadman's controversial (microfracture) technique - one that seems to
get great results or, at worst, does nothing.”
In short, the arthroscopic
procedure involves the removal of any unstable cartilage from the knee area,
and the creation of small holes (“microfractures”)
in the bone. Bone Marrow cells and blood from the area will then form a new
structure – at least, that’s the idea. The problem, of course, is whether
the extension of a career this violent through these means is the rough equivalent
of trying to stop a charging rhino with a toy pistol. According to Carroll,
the ACL
repair procedure has more documented reliability in these types of cases,
and the two injuries should not necessarily be seen as cumulative.
“The ACL, as we've seen,
doesn't really factor in, especially for linemen. I think what we have to
look at is that we've seen comebacks from both (injuries, though most microfracture
“survivors” have not been linemen) and consider them separately rather than
as most people logically do -- as parts of the same person,” Carroll concluded.
“I'm more worried about the weight and the microfracture - there's just no
good comparable. From the ACL, we've seen a lot of (recoveries), usually without
short-term problems. I'd think the biggest concern is that he can come back
from the microfracture, something he's already demonstrated to some extent,
and that his career is not likely to challenge Chris Gray’s for longevity!”
For the Seahawks, the concern
is the here and now, For Marcus Tubbs, it’s the future
on his mind. How that impossible gap is bridged over time will decide the
fates of both entities.
Doug Farrar is the Editor-in-Chief
of Seahawks.NET, a staff writer for Football Outsiders,
and a contributing author to Pro Football Prospectus 2007. Feel free to e-mail him here.