The
stats used in this analysis are all available at Football Outsiders
- the DVOA and DPAR stats referenced here are theirs, and are explained here.
In addition, if you want to drill down and get really forensic,
you will find some amazing numbers in the "Head-to-Head" section of
the FO
Premium Database. We'll be featuring some of those numbers in future installments
of DVOA Matchup, but you
can see a sample here. To get things started, we'll stick with offense,
defense, and special teams.
Total DVOA
| Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Variance |
Rank |
| ARI |
-6.4% |
19 |
-7.4% |
21 |
27.0% |
3 |
| SEA |
15.1% |
10 |
13.9% |
10 |
11.9% |
18 |
For
the Seahawks, the most interesting aspect of their overall DVOA is that their
top ten spot is predominantly due to defense and special
teams. If you needed proof that this is now Tim Ruskell's team, look no further.
The
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Super Bowl champion that Ruskell helped build,
ranked first in defensive DVOA, eighth in special teams DVOA … and 21st in offensive
DVOA. It is possible, though not at all glamorous, to win the Super Bowl with
an efficient quarterback, the recent loss of a franchise back (Warrick Dunn
to Atlanta after the 2001 season trumps Shaun Alexander's ineffectiveness, but
not by much), and a productive group of under-the-radar receivers (Keyshawn
Johnson, Joe Jurevicius, Keenan McCardell). Tampa
Bay's defensive DVOA of -33.6% was quite a bit better, though.
For the Seahawks to go on any real playoff run, something's going to have to
bust loose, and it would probably have to be the offense. There are simply too
many teams playing spread formations and passing over 60 percent of the time
for a league-average offense to survive, and Seattle
is not in possession of the 2002 Bucs/2000 Ravens/1985 Bears type of defense.
This is as good as it gets, though it is probably sustainable. A Dallas/Green
Bay/New England postseason scenario would be Seattle's dream and nightmare in equal proportions.
Notice the Variance as well - the Seahawks are what we think they are, while
Arizona is a somewhat spikier proposition.
Offense vs. Defense
| Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Variance |
Rank |
| SEA OFF |
1.2% |
15 |
0.7% |
15 |
2.4% |
31 |
| ARI DEF |
1.2% |
16 |
-0.4% |
15 |
10.5% |
3 |
Ah,
yes. "Mediocrity vs. Mediocrity" doesn't sell tickets, but it's been
the truth when discussing Seattle's offense and Arizona's defense. That said,
the tables are starting to turn. Arizona has lost All-World safety Adrian Wilson and cornerback Eric Green for
the season; remaining marquee 'backer Antrel Rolle is
a misplaced nickel corner who is infamous for biting on double moves and acquiring
penalties. Meanwhile, Mike Holmgren's re-commitment to a pass-wacky offense since
the bye has paid dividends.
The Seahawks are 4-1 since their break, with the only loss coming in overtime
to the Browns. In those five games, Hasselbeck has completed 127 of 203 passes
(62.6%) for 1,369 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Hasselbeck's
performance has been all the more impressive given the fact that opposing defenses
know what's coming -- the days of Seattle's elite running game are long gone. The Seahawks rank 12th
in passing DVOA (13.3%) and 28th in rushing DVOA (-15.3%). Arizona's
defense is 13th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd against the run, which tells
us that Hasselbeck should have another frisky day.
One important note - Arizona's terrible
against #1 and #2 receivers (25th and 20th in DVOA, respectively), but quite
good against #3 guys and tight ends. They're average defenders against the screen
pass (16th), which would be relevant if passing to their backs was something
that the Seahawks actually did. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram should have big
numbers.
One more notable aspect is that Seattle's
offensive line, which has indeed been truly offensive most of the season, will
be experiencing a few shakeups in this game. Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack
will continue to get reps along with Rob Sims at left guard -- at least until
Womack experiences another hangnail or fat globule strain and can't go anymore.
Center Chris Spencer has been the team's representative in the "Oblique
of the Week" contest, but that may bode well for his performance. Patrick
Kerney had a strained oblique in early November, but he picked up seven sacks
in the month. Lofa Tatupu was able to overcome a recent oblique issue to intercept
three A.J. Feeley goatballs last week against the
Eagles. At this rate, the coaching staff might be aiming football-filled JUGS machines at the obliques
of every player on the team.
| Team |
Total
DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted
DVOA |
Rank |
Variance |
Rank |
| ARI
OFF |
-2.1% |
18 |
-3.6% |
18 |
8.2% |
9 |
| SEA
DEF |
-11.1% |
4 |
-12.3% |
4 |
10.3% |
5 |
First, the obvious. Last week against the Browns, Arizona's
passing offense suffered mightily due to the fact that receiver Larry Fitzgerald
was out with a groin injury. He's a game-time decision against the Seahawks.
With no Fitzgerald in the game, Cleveland
could roll coverage on Boldin, who didn't see his pass thrown his way until
halfway through the third quarter. Later in that quarter, Boldin suffered
a toe injury and will be out for this game. Do not, under any circumstances,
expect the same to happen to Fitzgerald if Boldin is out.
The perception of Arizona's receivers
is that Fitzgerald and Boldin are relatively equal in productivity, but it
just isn't true. This
year, Fitzgerald ranks 16th in DPAR, with Boldin bringing up the rear
at 33rd. In
2006, Fitzgerald was 7th, and Boldin 21st. In 2005,
Fitzgerald was 4th, and Boldin was 15th. You get the idea.
If Fitzgerald plays, Marcus Trufant will most likely have the "honor"
of covering him, a fact which has left chilblains running up and down the
spines of the Seahawks faithful in contests past. However, it's well worth
remembering that this year's Trufant is a very different player, and he would
be going up against a slightly diminished version of the man who is probably
the best receiver in the NFC West.
Kelly Jennings would then have Bryant Johnson to deal with, and this is a
matchup in which receiver and defender are probably a bit better than people
think. Another outlet to watch for is tight end Leonard Pope, who had five
touchdowns among his 28 catches. The
Seahawks do well against #1 receivers, tight
ends and running backs; less so against receivers #2, 3 and 4, whoever they
may be. However, Arizona's current receiver situation leaves everything
up in the air.
Edgerrin James has rushed for over 100 yards only twice this season -- last
week against the Browns, and in that week 2 win over
Seattle. The good news for the rematch is that
the Seahawks currently rank sixth in Defensive
Adjusted Line Yards, thanks in large part to defensive tackle Brandon
Mebane, one of the NFL's best rookies.
Kurt Warner's been sacked once in every 21.8 pass attempts, ninth-best in
the league (Hasselbeck gets taken down once every 17.4 attempts). It will
be interesting to see whether the Seahawks go with the heavy pass rush they
had been using recently, or the hands-off, coverage-specific approach implemented
against the Eagles. Both approaches are working right now, which is one reason
the Seahawks are 4th in Defensive DVOA.
Special Teams
| Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
FG/XP Pts+ |
Kick Pts+ |
Kick Ret Pts+ |
Punt Pts+ |
Punt Ret Pts+ |
| SEA ST |
2.8% |
10 |
-0.65 |
0.00 |
9.10 |
-7.80 |
11.84 |
| ARI ST |
-3.1% |
24 |
-3.73 |
2.44 |
-1.54 |
-16.95 |
6.21 |
10th may seen alright until you consider that before Josh Brown's recent and
uncharacteristic yips, and Ryan Plackemeier's transformation
into Tom Rouen's stunt double, this unit was top three. The Seahawks rank 10th in average
yards per kick return (23.8), and Arizona ranks 16th (23.0). Seattle
allows 24.7 yards per kick return, 25th in the league, while Arizona
allows 23.3 per kick return, ranking 21st. Arizona's 13.8 yards allowed per punt return is second-best in the
NFL, ahead of only the Colts, and the Seahawks rank 24th in this category at 11.2
yards allowed per return. Seattle ranks 5th in yardage gained
per punt return with 11.7; Arizona is 9th at 10.7. Neil Rackers' 68.2 field goal percentage is
his worst since 2001. Brown has made 77.8 percent of his field goals this season,
but he's missed four of five and five of his last nine.
One of Plackemeier's oddest statistical quirks is
that with one exception (the week 6 game against New Orleans), his good games
and bad games have alternated weeks. Mitch Berger is Arizona's new punter, signed after the recent release
of Matt Barr, who ranked last in the NFL in both net and gross average.
|