DVOA Matchup, Part 1 - Seahawks at
Panthers
The stats used in this analysis are all available at Football Outsiders
- the DVOA and DPAR stats referenced here are theirs, and are explained here.
In addition, if you want to drill down and get really forensic, you will find
some amazing numbers in the "Head-to-Head" section of the FO Premium Database. We'll be featuring some of those numbers
in future installments of DVOA Matchup, but you
can see a sample here. To get things started, we'll stick with offense,
defense, and special teams.
Echoes of 2005?
In
the wake of Seattle's five-game winning
streak, some pundits are starting to compare this Seahawks team to the squad
that made it to the Super Bowl in 2005. It's an interesting week to engage
in this discussion, considering the fact that this is a rematch of the 2005
NFC Championship Game, in which the Seahawks dominated Carolina, 34-14. Since then, the Panthers have
fallen through the floor, but the Seahawks have managed to hold onto playoff
hope after winning their third and fourth straight division titles in 2006
and 2007. We know that this Seahawks team is better than the 2006 version,
but how does it stack up to the best team in franchise history in the eyes
of Football Outsiders' stats?
| |
2005 |
2007 |
| Total DVOA |
26.2% (5) |
16.2% (9) |
| Offensive DVOA |
23.4% (3) |
3.7% (15) |
| Defensive DVOA |
-3.5% (15) |
-10.0% (5) |
| Special Teams DVOA |
-0.6% (21) |
2.5% (12) |
| Offensive Passing DVOA |
30.9% (4) |
17.3% (11) |
| Offensive Rushing DVOA |
16.5% (3) |
-14.6% (25) |
| Defensive Passing DVOA |
7.9% (25) |
-11.0% (4) |
| Defensive Rushing DVOA |
-17.5% (3) |
-8.7% (10) |
| Adjusted Offensive Line Yards |
4.49 (6) |
3.64 (29) |
| Adjusted Offensive Sack Rate |
5.3% (9) |
6.3% (15) |
| Adjusted Defensive Line Yards |
3.55 (1) |
3.91 (8) |
| Adjusted Defensive Sack Rate |
7.8% (6) |
8.0% (5) |
It
doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. The two teams
are impressively close in many aspects, but the spots that show a deep decline
(rushing, offensive line play, run defense) aren't necessarily canceled out
by the ways in which this team beats the Super Bowl squad (pass defense, special
teams). The primary difference between the two teams is that the 2005 Seahawks
were more physical, and they made that very clear on both sides of the line.
The
2007 team is slightly better in quick-twitch categories like short passing
and sacks, but there isn't that element of domination that was so very evident
in '05. That's not to say that the 2007 team couldn't make a very big noise
in the playoffs, but everything will have to go right for that to happen.
In 2005, the Seahawks made their own luck. Now, as the third seed, they're
a bit more reliant on the vagaries of NFL fortune.
Now, back to this week…
Total
DVOA
| Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Variance |
Rank |
| CAR |
-29.7% |
29 |
-32.0% |
29 |
15.6% |
10 |
| SEA |
16.2% |
9 |
17.6% |
8 |
10.8% |
20 |
Offense
vs. Defense
| Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Variance |
Rank |
| CAR OFF |
-20.3% |
29 |
-24.5% |
31 |
8.1% |
9 |
| SEA DEF |
-10.0% |
5 |
-13.0% |
3 |
8.9% |
8 |
This
season, the Panthers have presided over a dead campaign for Jake Delhomme
(elbow ligament replacement after three games), and proof positive that when
it comes to David Carr, it wasn't the Texans (as I write this, Sage Freakin'
Rosenfels is whompin' up on the
Alleged Denver Defense with those very same Texans in a Thursday night game);
it's that Carr is one of the bigger busts in recent memory. Listed on one
fantasy football injury report as (fragile psyche), Carr was demoted to third
string in early December, behind the 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde and undrafted
Oregon State rookie Matt Moore.
Testaverde
has been unable to practice after being pulled in the fourth quarter of last
Sunday's 37-6 demolition at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Testaverde
and Carr rank 41st
and 42nd, respectively, in DPAR for quarterbacks. Things are so bad offensively
that some Carolina defensive players
had to be talked out of throwing their teammates under the bus in the locker
room after the Jags game. When Steve Smith ranks 77th in DPAR for receivers … well, you know that something's gone horribly wrong.
The
ground game isn't much better -- DeAngelo Williams ranks 26th in DPAR for
running backs, which leads the team, but he's not the starter. The starter
is FO bete noire DeShaun
Foster, who has turned his boom-and-bustitude into
a truly craptacular season. Foster's -6.0 DPAR puts
him at 48th among running backs, right down there at the bottom with "world-beaters"
like Cedric Benson, the Other Adrian Peterson, and the Deuce-McAllister-less
version of Reggie Bush. Foster has 214 carries. Williams has 99. Huh?
The
offensive line is a rare point of some pride for this team, and a scathing
indictment of the "skill position" players. They rank 13th in Adjusted Line Yards
and 12th in Power Success. Their ranking of 23rd in 10+ yards means that the
line is outperforming the backs (or at least Foster). The Panthers are 16th
in Adjusted Sack Rate, but I've found that it's more difficult to separate
a quarterback than a running back from his offensive line when analyzing specific
performance. A quick release isn't always a choice, as Matt Hasselbeck and
Drew Brees will tell you. Carolina's
quarterback situation leads me to grade this as an incomplete.
So,
with this marking a lost season for Carolina,
and quite possibly a complete Roto-Rootering of
the coaching staff, let's take a look at this Matt Moore kid. Cleveland's Derek Anderson has been one of the more interesting storylines
of the 2007 season in the way he's led his team to a nearly assured playoff
berth. And when I say "led", I mean it -- the Browns didn’t have
a running game until three weeks ago, and their defense is still weird. Meanwhile,
rookie third-round quarterback Trent Edwards has posted a 5-1 record for the
Bills in relief of J.P. "Million-Dollar Arm/Five-Cent Head" Losman.
Anderson went to Oregon
State, and Edwards to Stanford. What chance does Moore,
another Oregon State alum,
have of making it a trifecta of Pac-10 quarterbacks making a splash
this year?
NFLDraftScout.com
compares Moore to Josh McCown. He's
a tall (6-4), lanky (192 pounds) kid with a decent arm and some mobility.
Senior Draft Analyst Rob Rang kindly wrote this in reply to a request for
a scouting report on Moore's prospects:
Matt Moore possesses the blend of arm
strength, accuracy, and mobility teams are looking for in a developmental
prospect, and his talents belie his undrafted status. He showed significant
improvement throughout his career; engineering impressive victories over USC,
Oregon, and Missouri as a
senior while passing for 3,022 yards and a TD to INT ratio of 18-7.
Despite his statistics and impressive
wins, scouts were concerned with Moore's lack of prototype size. Moore's 6-4, 193 pound frame makes him
susceptible to injuries at the NFL level, and he has a history of knee and
concussion trouble already. If given time to gain strength and acclimate
to the speed of the NFL, however, Moore has the skills to warrant development. He reads
the action quickly and can make all of the NFL throws. He is mobile enough to
buy time in the pocket and allow his receivers to work themselves
free from coverage and has demonstrated an ability to raise his level
of play in big games.
Given
a few starts in 2008, who knows? But with a horrible offense around him, and
a relentless and opportunistic Seattle
defense that will endeavor to be in his kitchen all day long, Mr. Moore could
the recipient of a very expensive NFL education this Sunday.
Tomorrow,
we'll wrap up our DVOA Matchup with a look at the Carolina
defense, and how Seattle's special
teams finally overcame their own Stutzification.
Doug Farrar is the Editor-in-Chief
of Seahawks.NET, a staff writer for Football
Outsiders, a contributing author to Pro
Football Prospectus 2007, and he writes NFL previews for the New
York Sun. Feel free to e-mail him here.