As
of now, the Seahawks have about $9.5 million in cap room. Not the $3 million
or so you've heard from many sources, and that's because of a kink in the
Collective Bargaining Agreement called the Rule of 51, which states that only
the top 51 contracts will count against the team's salary cap. Still, a few
things could change that number pretty radically (especially in early June),
and that's the disclaimer we always have to use with these numbers -- they
are extremely volatile, not entirely official, and subject to change. What
you see today may not apply tomorrow, though we try to keep people up to date
on the numbers in our Premium Forum.
Mack
Strong and Shaun Alexander are still on the books and once they are released,
the Seahawks could be sitting on over $14 million in available cap. Rookie
contracts will pare that down, but only by $2 million or less, meaning the
Seahawks could be sitting on $10-$12 million in available dollars after free
agency and the draft are complete. All this while Marcus Trufant still holds a cap slot of over $9 million.
Conventional
wisdom says that the Seahawks let free agents Josh Brown and D.J. Hackett
walk away due to limited cap space -- that may not be as true as the team
wants us to believe. In reality, the Seahawks determined each player’s value
regardless of the available dollars and let players they apparently didn’t
feel were crucial to the team’s future success walk away.
As
to the players they acquired ... let's take a look at the most-discussed Seahawks
free agent contract of the 2008 offseason.
With
the "$5.5 million guaranteed in the first season" number thrown
around so frequently for new running back Julius Jones (and some outlets reporting
that as a likely 2008 cap hit, which didn't make much sense), Seahawks.NET
put together a more feasible set of numbers. Based on a $700,000 base salary,
his $4 million signing bonus prorated over four seasons and possibly some
other bonuses thrown in the kitty, we estimated that
Jones' cap hit this season would be around $2 million. Not chump change, but
fairly in line with someone who has shown average production and signs with
a new team who hopes for short-term upswing. It's important to remember that
what the Seahawks have said they'll put in Jones' pocket, and what they have
to put on the books, can be two different things. They can pay the bonus upfront
and stagger it out over the life of the deal for cap purposes.
As
it turns out, Jones' 2008 cap number is $2,113, 337, and it's
split between two teams -- the Seahawks will pick up $1.5 million this season,
and $613,337 goes on Dallas' books.
Not a bad deal, really. Since Jones' deal is incentive-laden as well (another
$4 million based on performance over the life of the deal), it seems that
the Seahawks have outlined a stopgap contract for a back they hope can outstrip
it.
T.J. Duckett, Jones' new battery-mate, has an equally cap-friendly deal. He's on
the books for $1,055,000 -- a $605,000 base salary and the rest in the proration of his signing bonus. Duckett has a $2 million roster
bonus due in 2009.
Now, for the elephant in the living room -- Jones and Duckett together
count for about $2.5 million against the Seahawks' cap in 2008. Right now, Shaun Alexander is on the
books for $6,775,000, and if he is released with the June 1 exemption allowed
by the Collective Bargaining Agreement, he'll count far less against the 2008
cap starting June 2 -- a reduction of $4.475 million which carries over into
next season. The Seahawks have to wait until Alexander's wrist heals, but
this seems a fait accompli. With two backs in the wings who count for less
than half of Alexander's cap hit -- combined! -- and
with little in the way of productivity expected from #37 based on the last
two seasons, it's easy to do the math.
Speaking
of value, let's take a look, Bill James-style, at a "Player X/Player
Y" scenario. Here, in fact, are Player X and Player Y combined for 2007.
| |
G |
GS |
REC |
YDS |
AVG |
LNG |
TD |
2007 DPAR |
2008 CAP HIT |
| Player X |
11 |
11 |
49 |
661 |
13.5 |
65 |
4 |
10.8% |
$6,760,000.00 |
| Player Y |
16 |
12 |
50 |
694 |
13.9 |
45 |
9 |
11.9% |
$4,050,000.00 |
| TOTAL |
27 |
23 |
99 |
1,355 |
13.69 |
|
13 |
22.70% |
$10,810,000.00 |
Pretty
high-cost, especially when you take a look at Player Z…
| |
G |
GS |
REC |
YDS |
AVG |
LNG |
TD |
2007 DPAR |
2008 CAP HIT |
| Player Z |
16 |
13 |
94 |
1,147 |
12.2 |
49 |
6 |
32.0% |
$2,140,000.00 |
Player
X is Deion Branch, who is recovering from a torn ACL and will miss at least
the start of the season, if not much, much more. Player Y is Nate Burleson,
and yes, that cap hit is after the restructuring of his supposed $49 million
deal that never was. He'll be Seattle's
#2 receiver, and a solid option as a kick returner,
but the value is questionable. Given these numbers, the idea that the Seahawks
saw D.J. Hackett as overpriced at $3.5 million over two years seems a bit
odd.
Player
Z? Bobby Engram. The 35-year-old veteran saved his best for his 12th NFL season,
proving to be one of the NFL's better bargains. He earned every penny of his
two-year, $3.4 million contract in the first year alone.
If
you take Engram's and Burleson's cap hits, and add the approximately $1 million
in total 2008 cap dollars for Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne,
you've got the five receivers who will most likely see more action costing
half a million more all told than the guy who will be sitting on the bench.
Factor in that first-round draft pick, and the Deion Branch deal is the one
thing Tim Ruskell's not going to want to remember about his Seattle
tenure when all is said and done.
Speaking
of bargains ... here are the Seahawks' Top Value Picks for 2008 (again, all
numbers are approximate):
5.
Leroy Hill -- $1,068,250
4. Patrick Kerney -- $3,250,000
3. Brandon Mebane -- $540,250
2. Sean Locklear -- $2,650,000
1. Lofa Tatupu -- $970,000
Gotta
love those rookie contracts! Hill and Tatupu comprise two-thirds of the NFL's
best 4-3 linebacker corps, and it could easily be argued that they're the
better two-thirds. Peterson, a dynamic player who disappears at times, is
on the other list. In Tatupu and Kerney, you have two legitimate
Defensive Player of the Year nominees, perhaps the best tribute yet
to Tim Ruskell's personnel acumen. Mebane was a rock in the middle of the
defense as a rookie, putting up the fifth-best Stop Rate against the run among
defensive tackles. The Seahawks are enjoying the best of Locklear's new five-year,
$32 million deal -- less than $3 million is a sweet deal for a better-than-solid
right tackle these days.
On
the other hand … well, there's the nearly $5 million in cap space with Grant
Wistrom's name on it, and Tom Ashworth's current cap charge of nearly $2 million
without the June 1 designation. The Branch numbers are pretty self-explanatory
at this point. Not good. Increased revenue or not, dead cap is dead cap. The
nearly $10 million payable to Trufant as the team's franchise player might
lead the Seahawks to try harder to cut a long-term deal and bring millions
in relief, or they might gamble on the extremely likely scenario that they
can get a better fit for that kind of money over time. We have seen, based on these numbers, that the urgency isn't quite what
we thought it was. The draft will tell a great deal.
In
the short term, we know that there is still room to make moves whether Alexander's
and Trufant's situations remain stable or not. In the long term, potential
labor strife and the possibility of an expired CBA would lead the NFL down
a perilous path. That's a story for another time, but it's good to know, after
looking at all the numbers, that the Seahawks have things in hand for now.
Doug Farrar is the Editor-in-Chief of Seahawks.NET,
a staff writer for Football
Outsiders, and he writes NFL previews for the New
York Sun. Feel free to e-mail Doug here.
The Hawkstorian, Seahawks.NET's
salary cap expert, is saving up for a pocket calculator in retro Seahawks
blue. Feel free to e-mail him here.